A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
